And then they quickly added, “Not that there’s anything wrong with that.”
WASHINGTON – The National Intelligence Council, which brings together all 16 US intelligence agencies, argues in its recent report titled Global Trends 2025 that Turkey’s most likely course in the next 15 years involves a blending of Islamic and nationalist strains.
US spies see stronger, Islamic Turkey in 2025 Turkey is likely to have a more prominent political and economic role internationally and economically in 2025, but it will also become more Islamic and more nationalist, the U.S. intelligence community predicted in a report released late Thursday.
The National Intelligence Council, or NIC, which brings together all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, said in its report — “Global Trends 2025” — that the United States’ clout was likely to decline over the next 15 to 20 years, while China and India would have a strengthened position. Russia, it predicted, could go up or down.
Among Muslim countries, the NIC expected “to see the political and economic power of Indonesia, Iran, and Turkey increase. “Over the next 15 years, Turkey’s most likely course involves a blending of Islamic and nationalist strains, which could serve as a model for other rapidly modernizing countries in the Middle East,” it said.
The NIC said it expected secularism in the Middle East to decline in line with the Turkish example. “In the Middle East, secularism, which also has been considered an integral part of the Western model, increasingly may be seen as out of place as Islamic parties come into prominence and possibly begin to run governments,” it said. “As in today’s Turkey, we could see both increased Islamization and greater emphasis on economic growth and modernization.” But a more Middle Eastern and Islamic Turkey is a candidate for more important roles, the NIC said.
“Indonesia, Turkey and a post-clerically run Iran — states that are predominantly Islamic, but which fall outside the Arab core — appear well-situated for growing international roles,” it said….
Proust famously wrote: “All our final resolutions are made in a state of mind that is not going to last.”
About all such solemn National Intelligence Assessments: “All our future assessments are made in a state of the world that is not going to last.”
All kinds of possibilities suggest themselves.
Nothing here about possible mass unrest and political implosion in China. Nothing about China, first having systematically seeded the area with Chinese immigrants who will marry local girls, both much of Siberia and possibly, both for its oil and its farmland, Kazakhstan.
Nothing about the effect on India of the mass attempted exodus of Muslims from Bangladesh, fleeing rising sea levels.
Nothing about the likely implosion of Pakistan.
Nothing about the race for resources in Africa, the declines in food and in population, the sauve-qui-peut atmosphere that anthropogenic climate changes will undoubtedly cause. Nothing about the decline in the pseudo-ideal of “diversity” as the relative homogeneity of the population in the countries of East Asia –Japan, Korea, and especially China — comes to be perceived in the Western world, wistfully, as a conceivable explanation of national strength.
And, another great omission, save for the prediction that Turkey will be more “Islamic,” nothing about Islam and its encroachments on the West.
Nothing about the islamization of Western Europe through demographic conquest, or at least not a word in this National Intelligence Assessment about the much greater expense, and insecurity, and unpleasantness of life, for non-Muslims in the countries of Western Europe.
Nothing, in this prediction, about how the natural (and therefore predictable) reactions of peoples and polities to this or that development will render the other predictions less likely of fulfillment. Will the West, for example, come to its senses about the malignant uses of oil revenues by Muslim states, and work to diminish those revenues, or to cause them to be used up (why, for example, right now, is the Pentagon not insisting that Saudi Arabia and the lesser sheikdoms pay the West for sea-lane security? Or pay to keep the Sunnis from being overwhelmed in Iraq? Or pay for Pakistan’s permanent upkeep — or don’t the Arabs care whether Pakistan implodes, and if they don’t, then why should we?)
It’s fun though. It keeps people off the streets. It could be a party game.
National Intelligence Assessment. You have a big computer screen on which is depicted the map of the world. Each player gets to move boundary lines around, based on a plausible explanation. Each player gets to type in his predictions of what’s to come, and in what order, and to explain what his reasons are. And then they are read out, to the assembled crowd of merrymakers, and they can laugh appreciatively, or laugh to scorn, or animatedly discuss, what’s to come.
What’s to come?
What’s to come is still unsure. In delay there lies no plenty.
You likely know the rest. But if you don’t, just brush up your Shakespeare. And don’t leave home without him. He’ll be your mental ballast. He’ll stand you in good stead, whatever does or does not come true, in that National Intelligence Assessment.
Posted by: HughÂ Â atÂ November 22, 2008 11:05 AM