But integration and cooperation are now going backward.
Hoping to stop the threat, Marine le Pen faces charges dating back to 2015.
The EU’s New Green Deal is headed in reverse along with integration and finance. Eurointelligence calls it The Wilders effect
Italy has Giorgia Meloni, Hungary has Viktor Orbán, Slovenia has Robert Fico and the Netherlands will soon have Geert Wilders. It is difficult to see an alternative to a government led by Wilders, one of the most recognizable and flamboyant of Europe’s right wing leaders.
Wilders’ victory cannot be reduced to the rise in immigration. The Netherlands has, by comparison with Germany, the UK and France, a relatively low rate of net immigration.
But Wilders, too, will need partners to govern. The most important ally will be Peter Omtzigt, a former Christian Democrat, who founded his own party in August this year, called the New Social Contract. Like Wilders, he, too, is a eurosceptic.
Another important partner will be the Farmer-Citizen Movement, which is opposed to Green policies. It increased its share of the vote from 1 to 7 MPs. But its biggest political coup were the Senate elections in March when they became the largest party. Governments need majorities in both houses of the Dutch parliament to pass legislation. The Farmer-Citizen Movement’s big theme then was a protest against government plans to cut nitrogen emissions in half by 2030, which would require a massive drop in livestock and the use of fertilizers.
Nowhere will the shift to the right in Dutch politics be more painfully felt than in Brussels. The EU has experience in dealing with populists, like Orbán or the outgoing Polish government. Wilders is a much more potent threat because the Netherlands is the third largest net contributor to the EU budget.
With his 37 seats Wilders will not be able to trigger a Nexit – a Dutch exit from the EU. But he and other right-wing leaders in Europe have shifted strategy. They no longer campaign for exit from the EU or the euro. They now prefer to fight the EU from within. Without the support of the Netherlands in particular, it will become harder for the EU to pursue its flagship projects.
The European elections in June next year are potentially a big moment for the parties of the right. They are all polling well. Germany’s AfD, quite possibly the most extremist of the lot, is at 21% according to the latest polls (https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy are still the most popular party in Italy at 29% (https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/italy/). Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is at 24% (https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/). These numbers, if they hold up, would point to a large increase in the share of the two right-wings blocks in the European Parliament.
Wilders and Meloni will also have the opportunity to dispatch their own European Commissioners to Brussels. Last time, both countries sent politicians from the centre-left. The populists will be encroaching at all levels – Commission, Council and Parliament.
I expect the Green Deal to be watered down as just happened in the UK. I also struggle to see the unanimity required for Ukraine to become an EU member. There were periods in the past 70 years where European integration ground to a halt. Now, for the first time, it threatens to go into reverse.
