The mullahs are licking their chops. They fear the blowback. Seeing senior commanders of Hamas killed under their watch has given them the jitters.
Hugh Fitzgerald
It has been nearly three weeks since Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas’ “political wing,” was killed in his room at a heavily-guarded guesthouse in Tehran, when a bomb planted two months before exploded. While Israel has remained silent on the matter, this feat is widely ascribed to the Mossad. Iran has threatened a terrible revenge, but it may be trying to find an excuse not to follow through, because Tehran understands that any attack on Israel would provoke a devastating counterattack, almost certainly including the destruction of Kharg Island’s oil terminals, through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow, bringing Iran’s economy, already suffering, to its knees. Iran has said that if a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza can be established, it will no longer feel compelled to attack Israel. Despite the braggadocio of its leaders, Iran knows that in any major conflict with Israel, it will lose, and disastrously. The likely damage to its economy would push the Iranians into even deeper distress, perhaps leading to an uprising against the regime that has ever since 1979 has brought them a world of woe. More on Iran’s weakness can be found here: “Iran is weaker than we think. It’s time to take advantage.” By Saeed Ghasseminejad and Richard Goldberg, The Hill , August 14, 2024:
Yesterday, IRGC Brigadier General Ali Fadavi warned that Iran will “definitely” retaliate against Israel “at the suitable time and place,” adding that Israel “will be punished more severely than before.” He also said, “We will determine the time and manner of punishment for the bloodshed of Martyr Haniyeh, and it will definitely be done.”This is just the latest of a series…
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We’ve discussed how Iran and Hezbollah have been beating the drums of war in response to the assassinations of Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh but how they have been very reluctant to actually attack Israel out of fear that they would lose more than they might gain in “honor” and deterrence.What about the Houthis? They are not as rational as Iran and Hezbollah, but…
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