We can only hope that the regime falls….
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Trump’s 5D Chess on Iran: He Is Finishing the Job, But the Endgame Is Still Ahead
- Qatar’s Foreign Ministry says diplomatic efforts are ongoing to find a solution to the US-Iran conflict and all mediators are working closely to facilitate negotiations and exchange proposals between the countries.
- A vessel has been struck in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, the UK maritime security firm Vanguard says. One crew member is missing.
- US President Donald Trump says talks with Iran are under way, warning that the negotiations are Tehran’s “last chance” to secure a deal. Tehran denies holding talks with Washington, saying it is speaking to Oman about the Strait of Hormuz.
In recent months almost every move Trump made regarding Iran triggered waves of noise and criticism. Especially after the ceasefire and the complications around the latest MoU, many of those who believe the only real solution is regime change found themselves frustrated and losing trust.
Trump’s moves often seemed arbitrary, random, and very confusing. A lot of people were saying he has no plan, and they were angry at those who insisted he was playing a sophisticated game. But the truth is, he is indeed playing a complex, multi-dimensional game.
The Iran issue is extraordinarily complicated, with layers that are deeply intertwined and difficult to see all at once. Trump’s response is not a simple, compartmentalized plan, and that is probably why it can feel confusing, especially if you do not have visibility into all these layers or if you are looking at the situation from only one perspective.
In this article I want to separate these layers as clearly as possible so you can see the different dimensions of the chessboard. Perhaps after that some of the confusion will lessen, or at least you will be able to place more trust in the direction Trump is taking.
The Logic of Chess
Let me take a step back for a second. Let’s look together at how chess actually works, because I think this is where a lot of the confusion comes from. You do not sit down on the first move and already know exactly how the whole game is going to unfold. The path changes depending on what your opponent does. You adjust. You respond. You use different pieces for different purposes. And almost never do you deliver checkmate right at the beginning. This is a game that takes time.
The Islamic Republic is not a normal player. It is not just another dictatorship that follows ordinary rules. This is a dangerous, deeply ideological regime that has never played in good faith. And it does not operate alone. It has a wide and complicated network of proxies and lifelines that keep it alive.
Many people expect the whole thing to end with one decisive blow. When that does not happen, they feel disappointed. And when the regime or its proxies push back and make their own moves, many see it as a sign that Trump does not know what he is doing or that he is weak. But that is not the case.
Trump understands the pieces the regime has on the board. He expects their reactions. The skill lies in gradually removing or neutralizing those pieces. The tools he uses are not limited to military force. Negotiation is one of them. Economic sanctions are another. International isolation matters as well. All of it has to be seen as part of one larger picture. You cannot look at a single move in isolation and immediately conclude that the strategy is failing.
Now let’s look at the chessboard’s different dimensions.
Dimension One: A Dangerous, Hostage-Taking, Suicidal Regime
The 1979 revolution was never the noble popular uprising so many have romanticized. It was a brutal power grab by a small, ruthless, mafia-like group. From the very beginning this regime specialized in hostage-taking and creating chaos. Its core reason for existence has always been the destruction of the West, and the United States in particular. This is not a side priority. It is the regime’s reason for being.
For decades the regime poured the nation’s wealth into nuclear and missile programs, regional proxies, ideological export, and propaganda infrastructure. It prepared deliberately for exactly this kind of confrontation. The regime tied its own survival to the survival of 90 million Iranians. It embedded itself like a cancer deep into society, the economy, and daily governance. Iranians became the ultimate hostages.
Iranians have risen up many times over the past twenty years, only to face brutal suppression each time. One of those moments came in January 2020. President Trump tweeted in Persian that he was watching the courage of Iranians. The regime kept executing protesters and opponents with cruelty. It ignored international condemnation and calls from global bodies.