“Science Fiction” that does not “pass the laugh test”.
TRUMP:
“It’s time to end the failed experiment of open borders. You have to end it now.”
Absolutely love watching Donald put the fear of God into the UN consensus.
“Science Fiction”
A climate and energy expert has taken aim at the modelling in the Albanese government’s National Climate Risk Assessment report, saying it paints a “science fiction” scenario that does not “pass the laugh test”.
A top climate expert has taken aim at assertions made in the Albanese government’s contentious National Climate Risk Assessment, claiming the report doesn’t stack up.
The Albanese government’s National Climate Risk Assessment last week painted a dystopian picture of Australia’s future, warning the nation would suffer a loss in property value of $611 billion by 2050 if global temperatures were to rise by 3C from current levels.
The report modelled scenarios up to 3C global warming, warning that risks to communities, property, and the economy were “very high or severe”.
It said Australia faces a future of unprecedented heatwaves, daily flooding events and major threats to agriculture if urgent action was not taken, with Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen describing the climate risks as “cascading, compounding, concurrent”.
Professor Roger Pielke, who has previously led the University of Colorado’s respected science policy centre, said numerous claims made in the Albanese government’s climate report were easily contradicted and that it “does not pass the laugh test.”
“It is a scenario that is from science fiction. It doesn’t pass the laugh test,” he told News Corp’s National News Network.
Prof Pielke, who is in Australia to speak at the Aon Hazards Conference on the Gold Coast, said the Australian Climate Service, which authored the government report, deployed an “extreme scenario” to form its conclusions.
Despite the ACS forecasting in its scenario that the world population would swell to over 12 billion by 2100, United Nations forecasts put the figure at 10.2 billion, up from the current number of 8.1 billion.
Prof Pielke said that overstating scenarios and “low-balling” costs was political activism, as opposed to objective research.
The report said under a 3C warming scenario, there would be a 400 per cent increase in heat-related deaths, with northern states and remote communities the most susceptible.
It also predicted nearly 200 additional flood days annually in coastal regions, putting approximately three million people at “very high risk”.
Mr Albanese and Mr Bowen used last Monday’s report to justify the 2035 emissions reduction target, with the government revealing on Thursday it would set the target between 62 and 70 per cent below 2005 levels.
It has sparked the ire of energy experts who say the goal is virtually impossible to achieve.
Prof Pielke said that CSIRO modelling, released on the same day as the new government’s new climate target, used a more “optimistic scenario for projecting costs” for climate measures.
The CSIRO’s report found that for net emissions to reach 62 to 70 per cent by 2035 more than 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide would need to be removed from the air.
The renewed criticism of the report comes as the Australian Energy Market Operator’s chief executive Daniel Westerman warns immediate intervention was needed to ensure the nation’s energy grid was safeguarded as coal fire power plants continued to be phased out.
Mr Westerman will tell The Australian’s Energy Nation conference on Wednesday that Australia’s first coal free day could arrive well before the last coal fired generator shut down.
He will also say that system security is the energy grid’s most pressing challenge.
“From our control rooms, it’s clear that Australia’s energy transition is happening at pace, and there’s no going back,” Mr Westerman will say.
“Coal plants are closing, renewables are rising, and we must ensure the system remains both reliable and secure when that first coal-free day comes.”