OUT OF AFRICA? GREAT IDEA
Lies & statistics can prove … anything!
Tim Blair Blog Posts
South African crime statistician Gareth Newham says there is no evidence to suggest white farmers are targeted more than anyone else in his country:
“In fact, young black males living in poor urban areas like Khayelitsha and Lange face a far greater risk of being murdered. The murder rate there is between 200 and 300 murders per 100,000 people,” he said. Even the highest estimates of farm murders stand at 133 per 100,000 people, and that includes both black and white murder victims.
Leave aside racial issues and just consider those numbers. They are absolutely stupefying. By comparison, during 1990, New York’s worst year for homicides, the city-wide murder rate was 31 per 100,000 residents. Its most violent borough, the Bronx, recorded a murder rate that year of 54.2 per 100,000.
More recently, New York’s murder rate has fallen to just 2.2 killings per 100,000 residents – which at least shows these matters can be corrected.
So farm murders are now occurring in South Africa at a rate more than double that of the Bronx at its shootiest, and in some areas the murder rate is between four and six times that of the bloodiest borough during New York’s deadliest year.
(According to authors Anine Kriegler and Mark Shaw, by the way, South Africa’s worst year nationwide for murders was 1994, when the rate peaked at nearly 80 deaths per 100,000. The nation’s current overall murder rate has since returned to around where it was in the 1970s.)
Some further comparisons – and, again, keep in mind those current South African figures of between 200 and 300 murders per 100,000 in some urban areas and the farm murder rate of 133 deaths per 100,000. These are the worst recent murder rates in the US:
Birmingham, Alabama: 37.2 per 100,000
Jackson, Mississippi: 31.1
Baton Rouge, Louisiana: 26.2
Hartford, Connecticut: 25.7
Salinas, California: 25.3
West Palm Beach, Florida: 21
San Bernardino, California: 20.3
Richmond, Virginia: 19.5
Kansas City, Kansas: 18.6
Dayton, Ohio: 18.5
The murder rate in Chicago, as the linked article points out, is more than quadruple New York’s and more than double that of Los Angeles at 17.5 per 100,000 residents – not even in the US top ten.
Meanwhile, the murder rate in Australia is impressively low with big reductions still needed in precise areas:
The national homicide rate has decreased from 1.8 per 100,000 people in 1989-90 to 1 per 100,000 in 2013-14.
For Indigenous people, the homicide rate was much higher at 4.9 per 100,000 in 2013-14. The Northern Territory had the highest homicide rate in Australia, with 6.5 per 100,000 for 2013-14.
That 6.5 homicides per 100,000 figure is equal to Glasgow in 2004 – when Scotland’s largest city was known as Europe’s murder capital.