Month: June 2009

Why a Projection of Future Demographic Change May Underestimate the Real Growth of Islam in Western Nations and Its Consequences…

There is a YouTube video, titled Muslim Demographics, which has been viewed, quite understandably, more than a staggering nine million times. The video predicts an alarming expansion of Muslim population based on projections of the growing percentage of Muslims worldwide, the growing percentage of Muslims in Western nations resulting from immigration and the growth-rate amongst Muslims living in the West, as well as the low birth-rates amongst non-Muslims.

Such projections should always be critically viewed as past predictions of population growth, which generally used to scare Westerners out of having children, have proven to be grossly inaccurate. Many may well remember the 1968 book, titled ‘The Population Bomb’. The best-selling book was written by Paul R. Ehrlich. Ehrlich predicted that in the late Twentieth Century millions of people would starve to death due to a population explosion. Ehrlich opined that radical action was needed to limit population growth. Academia fully endorsed and accepted Ehrlich’s predictions and continued to advance his general theories long after his estimated statistical predictions were obviously wrong.

I remember studying his theories in college in the mid 1980’s. Ehrlich was still presented as a sage despite the fact that, by that point, time had proven him wrong. One result of Ehrlich’s work was that Western nations did greatly curb birth rates. While I have no doubt that social changes such as the increasing number of women working outside the home and the availability of birth control and abortions were a more direct factor in limiting birth-rates in Western nations, it also seems obvious to me that many young Westerners have been led to believe that limiting the number of children they have is socially conscious and that, by doing so, they are “saving the planet.” One need only question teenagers on the topic to confirm that they have indeed been led to believe that they should have no more than two children and preferably less. Ehrlich’s work has clearly contributed to the low birth-rates that are dramatically affecting Western nations and the relative percentage of Muslims to non-Muslims in Europe.

No matter how critically we examine the Muslim Demographics video and regardless as to the validity of its predictions as to when the growth of the Muslim population will reach certain levels, it is undeniably accurate as to the trend of relative demographic changes. The percentage of Muslims in the World, in Europe and even in the United States is clearly increasing and dramatically so. The rate of that growth is subject to great debate and variability, but the trend cannot be denied. As the percentage of Muslims climbs, you can be sure that all of the problems associated with the Islamic faith will increase.

Europe, for example, will become an increasingly hostile place for Jews after having several decades of relative tolerance following the horrors of the Holocaust. Daniel Pipes has also opined, and I concur, that the Golden Age of Jews in the United States may well be coming to an end. But as the Jews are fond of pointing out, what begins with the Jews never ends there and all non-Muslims will eventually feel Islam’s growing, malevolent influence.

Despite the fact that the Muslim Demographics video may well, and probably does, have some inaccuracies, it may well have offsetting errors. For example, I did not see any hint of adjustment based upon two factors that are sure to develop. One factor is that at a certain level of Muslim demographic penetration into Western culture, non-Muslims will become increasingly uncomfortable and will seek to flee to more tolerable locations. History reveals with few exceptions, if any, that the percentage of non-Muslims in any culture dominated by Islam shrinks dramatically over time.

In recent decades, we have all noted of the relative decline of almost all non-Muslim groups in most Islamic countries. Given the overwhelmingly negative perception of non-Muslims in Islamic doctrine, it is a certainty that non-Muslims will be persecuted and discriminated against in any Islamic culture. While some Muslim leaders may enforce some level of tolerance at times, eventually Islamic generated hatred of non-Muslims will always surface. As a result, separate and apart from demographic changes arising from birth rate differentials and immigration, the percentage of Muslims in some Western nations will rise as non-Muslims emigrate to more hospitable countries seeking to evade the harsh reality of life with Muslims that are taught to hate non-Muslims.

The Qur’an contains a few conciliatory verses, but that message is overwhelmed by the much more frequent and strident message of hatred toward non-Muslims. The Qur’an states that non-Muslims are: not to be taken as a friend (3:28), to be confused (6:25), to be Terrorized- ” I will instil terror into the hearts of the Unbelievers: smite ye above their necks and smite all their finger-tips off them.”(8:12), to be made war on (9:5 & 29), to be considered unclean (9:28), considered evil and a helper of evil against God (23:97 & 25:55), to be punished (25:77), to be humiliated (37:18), to be hated (40:35), to be beheaded (47:4), to be laughed at (83:34), and assumed to be plotting against Muslims (86:15). Finally, as if there could be any doubt based on the foregoing, the earliest biography of Muhammad originating from Ibn Ishaq flatly quotes Muhammad as stating: ‘‘Muhammad is the apostle of Allah! Those with him are violent against Unbelievers but merciful to one another…’ The Qur’an is in accord: ‘Muhammad is the apostle of God; and those who are with him are strong against Unbelievers, (but) compassionate amongst each other…’ (48:29).

Based on the hatred generated by Islamic doctrine, while there may be many cultural Muslims that ignore or are ignorant of the foregoing doctrine, there will always be a significant number of Muslims in any population of Muslims that will try to make life miserable for non-Muslims. Consider, for example, the well-known case of author Brigitte Gabriel. While she is a welcome addition to the American melting pot, she is here for one reason—the increasing hostility of Muslims toward non-Muslims as the percentage of Muslims increased in Lebanon. Gabriel’s experience will be repeated upon millions of non-Muslims even in the West as Islam’s influence expands. The age of European migration to the United States may well repeat itself in the coming decades as European demographics become increasingly Muslim and European culture becomes increasingly hostile to non-Muslims. Indeed, there is already such a trend as native Europeans are emigrating to places like Australia and U.S. in increasing numbers.

But there is another, less obvious danger building with potentially catastrophic results. We have already seen an influx of Muslims into Western nations as a result of the dysfunctional nature of Islamic culture. (Please see my essay, Islam Caused Islamic World’s Decline). Islamic culture simply produces more people than its hamstrung culture can support. As a result, millions of Muslims flee to Western nations, but most retain their belief in the very religion that was a substantial factor in their economic misery thereby undermining Western culture. The exodus of Muslims from Islamic countries to Western nations will eventually turn into a tidal wave of immigrants beyond the scope of anything experienced to date. This tidal wave of Muslim immigrants to Western nations and eventual steady outflow of native Europeans may well result in the fulfillment of the predictions set forth in the Muslim Demographics video, even if the birth-rate predictions that underlie the conclusions do not remain constant. Consider, for example, the likely prospects for Saudi Arabia.

The Arabian Peninsula consists mainly of desert that, under normal circumstances, can only support a low-density population, but that low-density population balance has been completely obliterated by oil revenue. The total population of Saudi Arabia in the early 1950’s was about 3.2 million. While I suspect that the nation can accommodate a population level well beyond that number, I am certain that as oil revenue declines in Saudi Arabia as it ultimately will, there is no chance that Saudi Arabia can support its projected population levels. The current population level of Saudi Arabia is 28,686,633. Out of a total of 224 countries in the World, Saudi Arabia ranks number 52 with respect to the average annual number of births a year per 1,000 persons in the population. Population growth in Saudi Arabia is estimated at 1.848 percent annually. At that rate, the population will double in approximately 39 years. (Calculated by dividing 72 by the projected compound growth rate and rounding off.) Even if Saudi Arabia expelled all of its immigrant workers, that still means a potential Saudi Arabian population level of more than 40,000,000 in 39 years.

That is a tremendous amount of people for a largely undeveloped country with limited agricultural and water resources. Of course, as per capita oil revenue declines, the level of population growth may well decline as well. However, it is still readily apparent that eventually Saudi Arabia will not be able to support a population level that has been and will continue to be artificially and greatly increased due to the unusual circumstances of a relatively primitive culture obtaining great wealth via oil revenues. The sad irony is that the longer Saudi Arabia’s oil wealth lasts and the more it is able to manipulate oil prices in its favor, the greater the increase in the level of unsustainable population, therefore, the more devastating the eventual population correction. As a result, Saudi Arabia is literally a ticking population time-bomb, the explosive force of which is increasing every year as oil wealth allows for large families.

I do not know when the oil-rich Gulf States will reach peak oil production or oil revenue and begin to decline, but I do know that eventually the oil spigot will run dry and many Islamic countries such as Saudi Arabia will have to make due without the aid of vast oil revenues. Saudi Arabia has already been troubled by the decline in per capita, inflation-adjusted, oil revenue due to its burgeoning population. Imagine what will happen when even the face value of the revenue decreases. While the Gulf States are making valiant efforts to prepare for a post-oil economy, I doubt that the efforts will have the level of success necessary to support burgeoning population levels in a desert environment that clearly cannot support the level of population already sustained without the aid of oil revenue.

I foresee tremendous upheaval in the Middle East when several oil-rich Islamic states begin to fail as the oil spigot runs dry. Not only will tens of millions of people be forced to flee to other countries thereby exacerbating the problems associated with Muslim immigration into Western nations, but, if you can imagine such a thing, the Middle East will be further radicalized. I can already hear what fundamentalist Muslims will say. They will claim that Western nations stole their oil and left them destitute. The Saudis are a proud people that perceive the oil as a gift from Allah. They greatly value the esteem they have received on the world-stage as a result of their artificial importance arising from vast, valuable oil reserves. It is hard to even fathom the cultural shock and devastation that will occur as the nation slides backward into what it was—a largely barren, primitive, and relatively unimportant backwater.

As the oil-rich Islamic states decline, they will cause untold sorrows to Western nations that may well surpass the current levels of sorrow arising from exported terrorism and fundamentalist Islamic ideology. One of those sorrows will be the economically forced migration of millions of Muslims into Western nations with all of the problems associated therewith. Imagine millions of Muslims raised in the Saudi cultural and educational environment that fosters the belief in Islamic supremacy and hatred of non-Muslims flooding into Europe and the United States.

Far from being an exaggerated, alarmist version of events to come, the Muslim Demographics video may well eventually turn out to be a conservative dream as opposed to the real nightmare to come.

If ‘Muhammad’ and ‘Abdullah’ already hate Western civilization and are willing to engage in acts of terrorism while their lives are subsidized by the transfer of great wealth to their culture due to the manipulation of oil prices, just imagine how much more motivated they will be when they are destitute and are falsely led to believe that Western nations stole the oil with which Allah blessed them. Given the increase in knowledge and technology which Western nations are ignorantly bestowing upon the Islamic world, ‘Muhammad’ and ‘Abdullah’ will be well positioned to cause great sufferings in Western nations that will be undermined by significant levels of Muslims within their borders.